Optimizing your experience...
Optimizing your experience...
Investment Philosophy
Every position has a reason to exist—and a defined exit. I start with what could go wrong, build for scenarios, and act when the thesis plays out or breaks.
Value investing is simple in concept: buy assets for less than they're worth and wait for the market to recognize the gap. In practice, it requires patience, discipline, and the ability to act when others won't.
Crowds create mispricing. When everyone chases the same stocks, they become overpriced. When everyone ignores an asset class, it becomes underpriced. Value investors pay attention to what's being ignored.
This isn't about being contrarian for its own sake. It's about recognizing that human psychology doesn't change, and that creates recurring opportunities for patient capital.
Example: The Gold Thesis
In 2024, gold and silver miners were trading at decade-low valuations relative to metal prices. An entire generation dismissed them as outdated while chasing crypto and meme stocks.
I saw mispricing. Gold has preserved purchasing power for 5,000 years. That doesn't become obsolete because a new generation discovers speculative assets. When valuations get that detached from fundamentals, value investors take notice.
I sized the position to survive a 40% drawdown in miners while still moving the needle if the thesis worked. Defined risk. Clear exit criteria. That's the difference between speculation and thesis-driven investing.
This reflects personal investment philosophy and trading history. Past decisions don't guarantee future results. All investing involves risk.
Most advisors talk about "risk tolerance questionnaires" and call it risk management. I start differently: what's the worst realistic scenario for this portfolio, and can you live with it?
Every position is sized based on its potential downside, not just its upside. A high-conviction thesis might get 5% of the portfolio. A speculative one gets 1%. The allocation reflects the risk, not just the opportunity.
Risk-defined doesn't mean risk-free. It means you know what you're risking before you risk it.
The U.S. has over $36 trillion in national debt and runs $2+ trillion annual deficits. Historical patterns suggest governments in this position tend to rely on inflation rather than default. While no one can predict currency outcomes with certainty, this dynamic informs how I think about portfolio construction.
Aurea maintains a structural tilt toward real assets: gold, select commodity producers, and businesses with pricing power. This isn't a bet on collapse or a prediction about timing. It's recognition that diversified real asset exposure may help protect against tail risks that traditional stock/bond portfolios don't address.
I treat hard assets as risk management and purchasing-power insurance, not speculation. The allocation is sized appropriately, built with a value lens, and integrated into a broader diversified portfolio. Gold's historically low correlation to equities provides ballast when traditional diversification fails (as it did when stocks and bonds fell together in 2022).
The goal isn't to predict the future of the dollar. It's to build portfolios that don't require the future to go exactly as planned.
Value investing is the philosophy. These three elements are how I execute it.
I build portfolios by asking: what could go wrong? A 30% drawdown. Three years of sideways markets. An inflation spike. Every allocation is sized to weather these scenarios without forcing you to abandon the plan. Diversification is a tool, not the strategy.
Scenario Planning
Built to survive drawdowns, not just chase returns
Position Sizing
Allocation reflects downside risk, not just upside
Exit Criteria
Every position has defined conditions for sale
Most advisors think about taxes in December. I look for tax-loss harvesting opportunities throughout the year, track wash sale windows, and coordinate with your CPA. Not just at year-end. Tax alpha compounds quietly but powerfully.
What I Do
The Result
Every position has a documented thesis: why I own it, what would make me sell, and the expected range of outcomes. When the thesis plays out, I take profits. When it breaks, I exit. No position survives on hope—only on ongoing validity.
Research tools help me test assumptions and surface signals. But the thesis is mine, and so is the accountability. Every decision traces back to a documented reason.
Every portfolio analysis includes actionable insights tailored to your situation. Here's the format:
Portfolio Analysis
Sample Report Format
Prepared by
Aurea Investments
Fee Analysis
Current Fees
Potential Savings
10-Year Impact
Tax Optimization Opportunities
Allocation Assessment
Key Recommendations
Example format only. Not a guarantee. Actual results vary based on individual circumstances.